Minutes before Republicans attempt to elect a speaker again today, Kevin McCarthy, a hopeful, is witnessing an uptick in his odds following numerous unsuccessful attempts to secure the position on Tuesday.
The California lawmaker’s odds were declining yesterday night, according to the betting site OddsChecker, but they were improving this morning.
It gave no justification, but there have been rumours that if enough Republicans rebelled, they would switch to backing the GOP House leader. Donald Trump, a former president, has endorsed McCarthy for the position today.
“Last night, when we were all going to sleep, it appeared as though a protracted fight may be on the horizon. To become a House speaker, Kevin McCarthy was losing support, and there seemed to be no end in sight. In actuality, Steve Scalise’s odds were all the way down to +160, or an indicated 38.5% probability, whereas his odds increased to +115, or an implied 46.5% chance. That’s all changing quickly, according to the site’s odds analysis.
McCarthy’s chances were reduced to -120, or an indicated likelihood of 54.5%, as of 9 AM EST this morning, while Scalise was assigned +180 odds or an implied chance of 35.7%. By 10 a.m. EST, McCarthy’s odds were -150, representing an implied 60% likelihood, while Scalise’s odds were +200, or an implied 33.3% chance, the statement said.
According to spokesman Kyle Newman, “It’s not yet obvious how or why the odds have suddenly substantially changed in favour of Kevin McCarthy. The 19 hardliners and the 1 defector have not made any public statements or shown any indication that they have changed their minds since last night. However, the odds on McCarthy being the next speaker of the House are increasing by the hour. Do the books possess information that the general population does not?